Impossible or Improbable — A Gentle Introduction to Probability

  • What is probability?
  • The differences between the Frequentist approach and the Bayesian approach
  • How to visualize probability
  • How to utilize the rules of probability
  • Using confusion matrices to look at the basic metrics

Basic definitions

Probability

Bayesian versus Frequentist

Frequentist approach

Example — marketing stats

The law of large numbers

  1. Pick a random number between 1 and 10 and find the average.
  2. Pick two random numbers between 1 and 10 and find their average.
  3. Pick three random numbers between 1 and 10 and find their average.
  4. Pick 10,000 random numbers between 1 and 10 and find their average.
  5. Graph the results.

Compound events

  • The probability that A and B occur is P(A ∩ B) = P(A and B)
  • The probability that either A or B occurs is P(A B) = P(A or B)
  • Pink: This refers to the people who have cancer and had a negative test
    outcome
  • Purple (A intersect B): These people have cancer and had a positive test
    outcome
  • Blue: This refers to the people with no cancer and a positive test outcome
  • White: This refers to the people with no cancer and a negative test outcome

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Data Science Enthusiast, Remote Worker, Course Trainer, Archery Coach, Psychology and Philosophy Student

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Desi Ratna Ningsih

Desi Ratna Ningsih

Data Science Enthusiast, Remote Worker, Course Trainer, Archery Coach, Psychology and Philosophy Student

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